Study on dynamic evolution of social-ecological system risk in CBM development based on Choquet-Brusselator

In order to solve the problem that the current social-ecological system risk in CBM development was difficult to effectively judge and prevent, a risk dynamic evolution model integrating the Choquet integral operator and the Brusselator model was proposed. Through the pressure-state-response (PSR) framework, the influencing factors of social ecosystem risk were comprehensively analyzed and the index system was constructed. Combined with the theory of dissipative structure, it was revealed that the risk of social ecosystem was a dynamic evolutionary mechanism of state fluctuation mutation caused by the system’s continuous self-organization under the nonlinear action of pressure and response. The Choquet integral operator was used to calculate the evaluation value of pressure and response, and the dynamic evolution model of social-ecological system risk was established by further combining the escaping of Brusselator model to analyze the evolution path of risk.The case of Zhengzhuang CBM Development Zone in Qinshui Basin was analyzed by using this model. The results show that the dynamic evolution model can identify the deficiencies in system risk prevention and determine the risk dynamic evolution path, it can provide reference for scientific prevention of social ecosystem risk in CBM development.