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基于Morris法的巷道围岩变形全局敏感性模拟分析

Global Sensitivity Simulation Analysis of Roadway Surrounding Rock Deformation Based on Morris Method

  • 摘要: 利用3DEC离散元数值模拟软件建立深部巷道围岩热力耦合模型,并结合Morris全局敏感性分析法,通过一次只改变一个参数的取值方法轮流计算各参数的“基本影响”,并根据其均值μ和方差σ的大小判断围岩热传导率、围岩比热容、巷道壁面热交换系数、洞内空气温度、围岩温度、线热膨胀系数等参数对围岩变形输出值的影响程度,以及与其他参数相互作用大小。模拟结果表明:线热膨胀系数、围岩温度和洞内空气温度对巷道变形的影响最为敏感;围岩热传导率、围岩比热容、巷道壁面热交换系数对巷道变形的影响较为不敏感;各参数对变形输出值影响时,线热膨胀系数与其他参数相互作用最大,并且某个参数与其他参数间相互作用越大,其对变形输出值的影响不一定也大;在所选取的3个位置,对热力学参数敏感性大小顺序依次为顶帮、底帮、两帮。

     

    Abstract: It made use of 3DEC numerical simulation software to establish the coupled thermal mechanical model of deep roadway surrounding rock, combined the Morris global sensitivity analysis method that it cancalculate "elementary effect" of every parameters in turn and get their mean and variance by changing the value of only one parameter at a time.Then,according to the value of μ and σ, It could tell the effects of rock thermal conductivity, specific heat, heat exchange coefficient of tunnel wall, the air temperatureinside the cave, the temperature of surrounding rock and linear thermal expansion coefficient on surrounding rock deformation output value and the interaction with other parameters.The results showed that:the linear thermal expansion coefficient, the temperature of surrounding rock and the air temperature inside the cave are the most sensitive factor of deformation of roadway; the rock thermal conductivity, specific heat, heat exchange coefficient of tunnel wall are not very sensitive to deformation of roadway; parameters affecting the deformation output value, the linear thermal expansion coefficient has the largest interaction with other parameters, what is more, when the interaction of one parameter with other parameters is very big, the effect of the parameter on deformation output may not be a great value; thermodynamic parameters sensitivity sequence of the 3 selected position is roof, floor, two sides.

     

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