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基于GRA-DDA加权耦合模型的煤层突出危险性评价

Evaluation of Coal and Gas Outburst Risk Based on GRA-DDA Weighted Coupling Model

  • 摘要: 为了提高煤层突出危险性评价的效率和准确度,引入距离判别分析法(DDA),选用煤层瓦斯放散初速度、煤的坚固性系数、煤层瓦斯压力、煤体破坏类型和开采深度作为判别因子,并运用灰色关联分析(GRA)计算权重矩阵,建立了煤层突出危险性评价的加权距离耦合判别模型。将30个煤与瓦斯突出实例作为学习样本进行训练,建立相应的判别准则,经过训练后的模型误判率为0。利用该模型对10个煤与瓦斯突出实例进行评判,并将评判结果与单项指标法、BP神经网络法和未加权距离判别法进行对比分析,结果表明GRA-DDA耦合模型的评判结果准确,符合现场实际情况。

     

    Abstract: In order to improve the efficiency and accuracy of coal seam outburst risk assessment, Distance Discriminant Analysis (DDA) was introduced, five indexes including initial speed of methane diffusion, the coefficient of solidity of coal, coal seam gas pressure, type of coal body failure and mining depth, were regarded as discriminant factors. Grey Relational Analysis (GRA) was used to calculate the weight matrices, a weighted distance coupled discriminant model for coal seam outburst risk assessment was established.30 examples of coal and gas outburst were trained as learning samples, corresponding discriminant criteria was set up, and the ratio of mistake-distinguish was zero after training. The GRA-DDA model was used to evaluate 10 coal and gas outburst cases, and the evaluation results of this model was verified by comparing with the single index method, BP neural network method and unweighted distance discriminant analysis method. The results showed that the evaluation results of the GRA-DDA model are accurate and accord with the actual situation.

     

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