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基于突变理论的煤矿安全状态评价研究

Study on Safety State Evaluation of Coal Mine based on Catastrophe Theory

  • 摘要: 为准确评价煤矿安全状态、提高煤矿安全水平,提出了基于突变理论的煤矿安全状态评价方法。通过分析煤矿安全状态的影响因素,从人员因素、物的因素、环境因素和管理因素4个方面构建了煤矿安全状态评价指标体系;结合该评价指标体系,在突变理论的基础上,确定了煤矿安全状态评价的突变模型及评价过程;通过对评价方法进行优化,提高了评价结果的准确性。基于此评价模型及过程,针对实例煤矿进行安全状态评价分析,评价结果与该煤矿实际安全状态相符,证实了该评价方法的合理可行性。该方法可用于煤矿安全状态评价,为制订安全对策措施提供依据。

     

    Abstract: In order to evaluate coal mine safety state accurately, and improve the level of coal mine safety, the evaluation method of coal mine safety state based on the catastrophe theory was put forward. By analyzing the influencing factors of coal mine safety state, the evaluation index system of coal mine safety state was built from the personnel factors, material factors, environmental factors and management factors; combining with the evaluation index system, on the basis of catastrophe theory, the mutation model and evaluation process of coal mine safety state was put forward; through the optimization of evaluation method, the accuracy of evaluation result was improved. Based on the evaluation model and process, the safety state of a coal mine was evaluated and analyzed, and the evaluation results were consistent with the actual safety state of the coal mine, which proved the reasonable feasibility of the evaluation method. This method can be used to evaluate the safety state of coal mine and provide basis for formulating safety countermeasures.

     

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