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基于小波分析与GM(1,1)-ARMA(p, q)组合的矿井防尘用水量预测

Prediction of Coal Mine Dustproof Water Consumption Based on the Combination of Wavelet Analysis and GM(1, 1)-ARMA(p, q)

  • 摘要: 为了提高矿井防尘用水量预测的精确度,提出了基于小波分析理论与灰色预测模型(GM(1, 1))、自回归滑动平均模型(ARMA(p, q))组合的预测模型。运用小波分析将用水量时间序列做不同尺度分解,并将低频信号和高频信号采用GM(1, 1)和ARMA(p, q)进行预测,最终经小波重构得到预测结果。以林南仓矿为研究背景,使用该组合模型预测2014年各月份的用水量,通过与实际数据对比,残差检验相对误差不超过2.5%。结果表明:矿井防尘用水量在总体上逐年缓慢增加,每年内呈周期性的变化;基于小波分析与GM(1, 1)-ARMA(p, q)组合的预测模型具有较高的预测精度。

     

    Abstract: In order to improve the prediction accuracy of coal mine dustproof water consumption, a combined model was presented based on wavelet analysis, gray prediction model (GM (1, 1)) and auto-regressive moving average (ARMA(p, q)) model.The time series of water consumption was decomposed into different scales by wavelet analysis, then the low frequency signal and the high frequency signal were predicted by GM (1, 1) and ARMA(p, q), finally the result was obtained by wavelet reconstruction. Taking Linnancang Coal Mine as the research background, the combined model was used to predict the water consumption in each month of 2014, the relative error of residual test was no more than 2.5% compared with the actual data.The results showed that the coal mine dustproof water consumption increases slowly year by year, with periodic changes every year, and the prediction model based on the combination of wavelet analysis and GM (1, 1) -ARMA(p, q) has high precision.

     

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