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基于因子分析与BP神经网络的煤与瓦斯突出预测

Prediction of Coal and Gas Outburst based on Factor Analysis and BP Neural Network

  • 摘要: 为提高煤与瓦斯突出预测的可行性与准确性,将因子分析法与BP神经网络方法相结合,提出一种改进的BP神经网络预测方法。根据平顶山八矿煤与瓦斯突出相关主要影响因素的原始数据,使用因子分析法对9个煤与瓦斯突出影响因素的原始数据进行降维处理,得到3个公共因子;将3个公共因子代替原有的9个煤与瓦斯突出影响因素作为BP神经网络输入层参数,建立因子分析法与BP神经网络法相结合的煤与瓦斯突出预测模型,对平顶山八矿煤与瓦斯突出进行预测。选取平顶山八矿煤与瓦斯突出样本对改进的BP神经网络预测方法进行验证,结果表明:3个预测样本的相对误差分别为1.79%、3.54%、0.83%,均小于10.00%。采用改进的BP神经网络预测方法可有效解决传统的BP神经网络因为输入层参数过多而数据处理效率低、迭代速率慢与精确度低等问题。

     

    Abstract: In order to improve the feasibility and accuracy of coal and gas outburst prediction, an improved BP neural network prediction method was proposed by combining factor analysis method with BP neural network method. Based on the original data of the main influencing factors related to coal and gas outburst in Pingdingshan No. 8 Coal Mine, factor analysis method was used to reduce dimension on the original data of 9 influencing factors of coal and gas outburst, and three common factors were obtained; three common factors were substituted for 9 coal and gas outburst factors as input layer parameters of BP neural network, and a prediction model of coal and gas outburst combined with factor analysis method and BP neural network method was established to predict coal and gas outburst in Pingdingshan No. 8 Coal Mine. The coal and gas outburst samples from Pingdingshan No. 8 Coal Mine were selected to verify the improved BP neural network prediction method. The results show that the relative errors of the three predicted samples are 1.79%, 3.54% and 0.83% respectively, all less than 10.00%. The improved BP neural network prediction method can effectively solve the problems of low data processing efficiency, slow iteration rate and low accuracy of the traditional BP neural network due to too many parameters in the input layer

     

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