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断层影响下煤岩瓦斯复合动力灾害短时预警识别研究

Short-term early warning identification of coal-gas compound dynamic disasters under fault influence

  • 摘要: 深部开采条件下,断层构造影响区煤岩瓦斯复合动力灾害前兆响应复杂,短时预警识别难度较大。针对断层影响下煤岩瓦斯复合动力灾害的短时预警识别难题,基于45°、60°、75°正断层倾角工况下物理模拟实验声发射数据,开展煤岩破裂声发射事件流建模与短时预警识别方法研究:识别并排除人为敲击干扰和局部异常波动,构建煤岩破裂声发射事件流模型;采用统一锚点滑动窗口生成样本,以未来连续3个声发射事件内的煤岩破裂能量增强状态定义预警标签;对比不同窗口组合及模型的识别效果。结果表明,11-3滑动窗口组合表现最优,能够较好地兼顾历史信息完整性和短时预警时效性;CARIME-BiLSTM模型在测试集上的预测准确率为0.965 5,精确度为0.8,召回率和AUC均为1,F1值为0.888 9,且无漏报,仅出现1个误报。该方法能够有效识别断层影响下煤岩瓦斯复合动力灾害未来短时能量增强状态,可为断层影响下煤岩瓦斯复合动力灾害的声发射前兆识别与短时预警提供依据。

     

    Abstract: Under deep mining conditions, coal-gas compound dynamic disasters in fault-affected zones show complex precursor signals, making short-term early warning difficult. To address the challenge of short-term early warning and identification of coal-gas compund dynamic disasters under fault influence, this study conducts acoustic emission(AE) event stream modeling and short-term warning identification based on AE data from physical simulation experiments under at normal-fault dip angles of 45°, 60°, and 75°. After removing manual knocking interference and local abnormal fluctuations, a coal-fracture acoustic emission event stream model was constructed. Samples were then generated using a unified anchor-point sliding window, and energy enhancement in the next three consecutive acoustic emission events was used as the early warning label. Different window settings and models were compared to evaluate their warning performance. The results show that the 11-3 sliding window performs best, providing a suitable balance between historical information and warning timeliness. The CARIME-BiLSTM model achieved an accuracy of 0.965 5, precision of 0.8, recall of 1, AUC of 1, and F1 score of 0.888 9 on the test set, with no missed warnings and only one false alarm. These results indicate that the proposed method can effectively identify future short-term energy enhancement before coal-gas compound dynamic disasters in fault-affected zones. This study provides a basis for acoustic emission precursor recognition and short-term early warning of coal-gas compound dynamic disasters under fault influence.

     

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