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基于贝叶斯组合赋权的智能化采煤工作面冲击危险性评价研究

Research on intelligent evaluation of rockburst hazard in intelligent coal mining faces based on Bayesian combination weighting

  • 摘要: 针对智能化开采条件下冲击地压风险评价中指标维数高、单一赋权法难以兼顾专家经验与实测数据统计规律的问题,提出一种基于贝叶斯组合赋权的智能化工作面冲击危险性可视化判识方法。从静载荷、介质属性、动载扰动3个维度出发,通过冲击地压致灾机理、专家咨询与现场调查等方法构建了包含埋深、地质构造等5个方面22个指标的指标体系,并运用层次分析法确定主观权重。引入主成分分析剔除冗余特征等相关性较弱指标,降低评价维数,基于贝叶斯理论构建相对熵目标函数,并将信息熵挖掘的数据客观权重作为似然函数,对主观权重进行修正,实现主客观权重的非线性耦合,同时,结合云模型理论,将综合评价模型分为机理模块、特征重构模块、贝叶斯优化模块与云图可视化模块,完成各模块脚本程序的编写及封装,实现权重与指标相关性的智能化寻优及冲击危险性等级的可视化判识。基于样本分析表明:该模型首先分析出“单轴抗压强度”等弱相关性指标并剔除,识别出“与断层距离”为地质构造与开采扰动的强耦合风险源,同时,将“留底煤厚度”等指标的权重进行了显著修正,有效捕捉了动态风险,为矿井冲击地压的实际防控与生产决策提供数据支撑;最终实例分析对鄂尔多斯某工作面的评价为Ⅰ级无危险,与现场经综合指数法评价结果高度吻合,验证了该方法在冲击危险性判识中的准确度与置信度。

     

    Abstract: To address the challenges of high index dimensionality and the difficulty of a single weighting method in balancing expert experience with the statistical laws of measured data in rockburst risk assessment under intelligent mining conditions,this study proposes a visual identification method for rockburst hazard in intelligent working faces based on Bayesian combination weighting. From the three dimensions of static load,medium properties,and dynamic load disturbance, an index system comprising 22 indicators across five categories—including burial depth and geological structure—is constructed through the analysis of rockburst disaster-causing mechanisms,expert consultation,and on -site investigation. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is employed to determine the subjective weights. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is introduced to eliminate weakly correlated indicators, such as redundant features, thereby reducing the evaluation dimensionality. Based on Bayesian theory,a relative entropy objective function is established,and the objective weights derived from information entropy are taken as the likelihood function to revise the subjective weights,thereby achieving a nonlinear coupling of subjective and objective weights. Furthermore, combined with cloud model theory, the comprehensive evaluation model is divided into four modules:a mechanism module,a feature reconstruction module,a Bayesian optimization module,and a cloud map visualization module. The compilation and encapsulation of the script programs for each module are completed, enabling intelligent optimization of weight-index correlations and visual identification of rockburst hazard levels. Sample analysis demonstrates that the model first identifies and eliminates weakly correlated indicators such as uniaxial compressive strength,and recognizes the distance to faults as a strongly coupled risk source of geological structure and mining disturbance. Meanwhile, the weight of indicators such as residual coal thickness are significantly revised,which effectively captures dynamic risks and provides data support for the practical prevention and control of mine rockburst and production decision-making. The final case study yields a Grade I:no hazard evaluation for a working face in Ordos,which is highly consistent with the on-site results obtained by the comprehensive index method, thereby verifying the accuracy and confidence of the proposed method in rockburst hazard identification.

     

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