Abstract:
To improve the accuracy of coal and gas outburst prediction, this study applies tectonophysical theory and methods to investigate the tectonophysical environment of outburst points in the Sihe Coal Mine from four aspects: structural assemblage, tectonic stress field, tectonically deformed coal, and tectonic gas. Based on this analysis, an index system for coal and gas outburst prediction using the tectonophysical environment is established, consisting of seven quantitative indicators: structural complexity, in situ stress, gas pressure, gas content, thickness of tectonically deformed coal, coefficient of firmness, and initial gas emission velocity. Subsequently, a quantitative prediction model of coal and gas outburst based on the tectonophysical environment is developed using quantification theory Ⅲ. To validate the model, eight tectonophysical units in the western area of the Sihe Coal Mine are selected as sample data. After quantitatively expressing structural assemblage and in situ stress indicators, the model predicts the risk levels of coal and gas outburst for different tectonophysical units. The prediction results are generally consistent with field observations. The results show that coal and gas outburst in the Sihe Coal Mine is controlled by the tectonophysical environment. Quantification theory Ⅲ not only captures the interdependencies and superposition effects among tectonophysical environmental factors but also effectively utilizes both qualitative and quantitative information related to coal and gas outburst. Therefore, the quantitative prediction model of the tectonophysical environment based on this theory is feasible for predicting the risk of coal and gas outburst by calculating the scores of each category.