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基于构造物理环境数量化分析的煤与瓦斯突出预测模型

Prediction model for coal and gas outburst based on quantitative analysis of the tectonophysical environment

  • 摘要: 为了提高煤与瓦斯突出危险性预测的准确度,运用构造物理学理论和方法,从构造组合、构造应力场、构造介质和构造带瓦斯4个方面对寺河矿煤与瓦斯突出点构造物理环境进行研究,在此基础上建立了包括构造复杂程度、地应力、瓦斯压力、瓦斯含量、构造煤厚度、坚固性系数和瓦斯放散初速度共7个量化指标的构造物理环境煤与瓦斯突出预测指标体系,并结合数量化理论Ⅲ的基本原理,构建了煤与瓦斯突出构造物理环境数量化预测模型,同时选取寺河矿西区8个构造物理单元作为样本数据,将构造组合、地应力指标进行量化表达,对不同的构造物理单元的煤与瓦斯突出危险性等级开展了预测,预测结果与现场基本吻合。结果表明,寺河矿煤与瓦斯突出受构造物理环境控制,数量化理论Ⅲ既能反映构造物理环境因素间的相互依赖关系和叠加效应,也能准确利用煤与瓦斯突出的定性和定量信息,由此建立的构造物理环境数量化预测模型,通过计算各类目得分来预测煤与瓦斯突出的危险性,是可行的。

     

    Abstract: To improve the accuracy of coal and gas outburst prediction, this study applies tectonophysical theory and methods to investigate the tectonophysical environment of outburst points in the Sihe Coal Mine from four aspects: structural assemblage, tectonic stress field, tectonically deformed coal, and tectonic gas. Based on this analysis, an index system for coal and gas outburst prediction using the tectonophysical environment is established, consisting of seven quantitative indicators: structural complexity, in situ stress, gas pressure, gas content, thickness of tectonically deformed coal, coefficient of firmness, and initial gas emission velocity. Subsequently, a quantitative prediction model of coal and gas outburst based on the tectonophysical environment is developed using quantification theory Ⅲ. To validate the model, eight tectonophysical units in the western area of the Sihe Coal Mine are selected as sample data. After quantitatively expressing structural assemblage and in situ stress indicators, the model predicts the risk levels of coal and gas outburst for different tectonophysical units. The prediction results are generally consistent with field observations. The results show that coal and gas outburst in the Sihe Coal Mine is controlled by the tectonophysical environment. Quantification theory Ⅲ not only captures the interdependencies and superposition effects among tectonophysical environmental factors but also effectively utilizes both qualitative and quantitative information related to coal and gas outburst. Therefore, the quantitative prediction model of the tectonophysical environment based on this theory is feasible for predicting the risk of coal and gas outburst by calculating the scores of each category.

     

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