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融合ANP-GWO与RF-TF-IDF的煤矿安全绩效动态评价及预测研究

Dynamic evaluation and prediction of coal mine safety performance integrating ANP-GWO and RF-TF-IDF

  • 摘要: 针对煤矿安全绩效评价存在的滞后性、指标静态失配等问题,基于人工智能算法搭建了自下而上的煤矿安全绩效动态评估框架。为适配短周期快速评价,在评价指标构建阶段提出前验指标与后验指标交叉融合方法:①在建立井工煤矿安全绩效评价指标体系并构建其层次分析网络基础上,引入灰狼优化算法(GWO)融合历史前验指标对安全绩效指标权重进行动态优化; ②联合采用随机森林(RF)与词频-逆文档频率(TF-IDF)方法挖掘煤矿历史安全绩效相关数据中的隐性风险特征,建立的RF-TF-IDF模型平均曲线下面积值达到0.98;③基于长短期记忆网络(LSTM)算法实现短周期安全绩效状态的实时感知与趋势预判。实验结果表明,新模型在测试集上的准确率为82.5%,LSTM预测模型的均方根误差为0.16,能够有效辅助绩效评价与决策。研究成果可进一步提高煤矿安全绩效考核体系的响应速度与预测精度,为煤矿安全绩效的动态评估、及时预警与决策支持提供一种新的智能化工具体系。

     

    Abstract: To address the issues of lag in coal mine safety performance evaluation and static mismatch of indicators, a bottom-up dynamic evaluation framework for coal mine safety performance is constructed based on artificial intelligence algorithms. To accommodate short-cycle rapid evaluation, a cross-fusion method of prior indicators and posterior indicators is proposed during the indicator construction stage. On the basis of establishing a safety performance evaluation indicator system for underground coal mines and constructing its analytic network process (ANP) hierarchy, the grey wolf optimizer (GWO) is introduced to dynamically optimize the weights of safety performance indicators by incorporating historical prior indicators. Subsequently, the random forest (RF) and term frequency-inverse document frequency (TF-IDF) methods are jointly employed to mine hidden risk features from historical coal mine safety performance data. The developed RF-TF-IDF model achieves an average area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.98. On this basis, real-time perception and trend prediction of short-term safety performance status are realized using the long short-term memory (LSTM) algorithm. Experimental results show that the accuracy of the RF-TF-IDF model on the test set is 82.5%, and the root mean square error (RMSE) of the LSTM prediction model is 0.16, demonstrating its effectiveness in supporting performance evaluation and decision-making. The research outcomes can further improve the response speed and prediction accuracy of the coal mine safety performance appraisal system, providing a new intelligent tool system for dynamic evaluation, timely warning, and decision support in coal mine safety performance.

     

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