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基于变分模态分解和灰狼优化BiLSTM的工作面瓦斯涌出量动态预测

Dynamic prediction of gas emission in the working face based on variational mode decomposition and grey wolf optimizer-optimized BiLSTM

  • 摘要: 瓦斯涌出量受多种因素耦合影响,其数据呈现复杂非线性、时间强相关和动态变化特点。针对这些特点,引入变分模态分解(VMD)、灰狼优化算法(GWO)和双向长短时记忆网络(BiLSTM),提出“特征提取—参数优化—回归预测”的动态预测模型,以实现瓦斯涌出量的精准预测:①利用VMD分解瓦斯涌出量序列,获取数据在不同频率成分上的特征,以降低序列的复杂度和波动性;②结合GWO的全局搜索能力与BiLSTM的时序建模能力,针对每个子模态分别建立GWO-BiLSTM预测模型;③重构分量预测结果得到瓦斯涌出量预测值。采集山西某矿井数据进行试验研究,结果表明,模型误差显著低于LSTM、BiLSTM和GWO-BiLSTM,决定系数R2达0.989 1。研究成果为复杂多因素耦合影响下的瓦斯涌出量预测提供了高效且可靠的解决方案。

     

    Abstract: Gas emission is influenced by the coupling of multiple factors, and its data exhibit complex nonlinearity, strong temporal correlation, and dynamic variations. To address these characteristics, this study introduces variational mode decomposition (VMD), grey wolf optimization (GWO), and bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) network, and proposes a dynamic prediction model following the "feature extraction-parameter optimization-regression prediction" framework to accurately forecast gas emission. First, VMD decomposes the gas emission sequence to capture features across different frequency components, thereby reducing the complexity and volatility of the data. Then, by leveraging the global search capability of GWO and the temporal modeling ability of BiLSTM, a GWO-BiLSTM prediction model is established for each sub-mode. Finally, the prediction results of all sub-modes are reconstructed to obtain the final gas emission prediction. Experimental studies are conducted using data collected from a mine in Shanxi Province. The results show that the proposed model achieves significantly lower errors than LSTM, BiLSTM, and GWO-BiLSTM, with a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.989 1. This provides an efficient and reliable solution for gas emission prediction under complex multi-factor coupling.

     

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