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煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故兼职应急救援队伍工种适配研究

Research on job type adaptation of part-time emergency rescue team for gas explosion accident in coal mine

  • 摘要: 为解决煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故应急救援中生产技术人员工种适配问题,以“企业应急,社会救援”思想为指导,采用情景分析和贝叶斯网络相结合的方法,对瓦斯爆炸事故应急救援过程进行推演:分析煤矿事故应急救援现状特点,确定事故情景、孕灾环境、响应动作、响应目标、自身演变规律5类核心情景要素;引入贝叶斯网络确定情景要素间的关系,运用模糊理论处理优化,构建瓦斯爆炸事故情景推演模型;选取煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故案例,通过Netica软件进行后验概率和敏感性分析,确定关键应急响应动作,并与煤矿各工种任务进行匹配,得到煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故生产技术人员工种适配方案,并验证模型合理性。研究结果可为煤矿应急救援工种适配提供一定参考。

     

    Abstract: In order to solve the problem of job type adaptation of production technologist of emergency rescue team for gas explosion accident in coal mine,guided by the thought of “ enterprise emergency,social rescue”,scenario analysis and Bayesian network were combined to deduce the emergency rescue process of gas explosion accident. Firstly,the characteristics of the current situation of emergency rescue in coal mine accidents were analyzed, and five situational elements were determined, including scenario state,disaster environment,emergency response,response target and self-eroluction law. Then the Bayesian network was introduced to determine the relationship between the elements of the scene, and the fuzzy theory was used to deal with the optimization. The scenario deduction model for gas explosion accidents was built. Finally,a coal mine gas explosion accident case was selected,and a posterior probability and sensitivity analysis was carried out by Netica software to find the key emergency response actions,which were matched with the tasks of various types of coal mine jobs. The job type adaptation scheme of production technologist of part-time emergency rescue team for gas explosion accident in coal mine was obtained,and the rationality of the model was verified. The research can provide certain references for the adaptation of emergency rescue job types in coal mines.

     

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