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密闭火区煤自燃分级预警指标优选与相关性分析

Index optimization and correlation analysis of coal spontaneous combustion classification early warning in closed fire area

  • 摘要: 密闭火区内部情况复杂,气体取样结果差异大,监测指标的优先级及可靠性有待考究。利用程序升温实验优选煤自燃预警指标、搭建分级预警模型,通过灰色关联方法计算所选指标与密闭区参数的相关度来验证指标的合理性,最后通过采集现场数据检验分级预警模型。结果表明:30、70、100、200℃是亭南煤的4个特征温度,对比选择CO体积分数和C2H4、C2H2初现温度作为预警指标;在此基础上验证了常用复合指标RC,O亦可作为预警指标;CO体积分数、RC,O与O2体积分数、密闭内外压差ΔH之间存在较强相关度,CO体积分数、RC,O与O2体积分数关联度最大,分别为0.801 3、0.785 8,与ΔH关联度次之,分别为0.696 8、0.672 1。经过对典型密闭进行连续监测发现,第2日之后,RC,O超过蓝色预警的最低阈值,且呈递增趋势,并发布“蓝色预警”,所搭建的预警模型成功应用于煤自燃分级预警。

     

    Abstract: The complex conditions within closed fire zones make gas monitoring challenging,resulting in varied sampling results. To address this,our study evaluates the reliability and priority of different monitoring indicators. We used temperatureprogrammed experiments to optimize early warning indicators and developed a hierarchical early warning model. The grey correlation method was applied to assess the relationship between selected indicators and parameters within the closed area, ensuring their suitability. The model was then validated using field data. Results identified four key characteristic temperatures for Tingnan coal:30 ℃, 70 ℃, 100 ℃, and 200 ℃. The volume fraction of CO,as well as the initial detection temperatures of C2H4 and C2H2,were chosen as primary early warning indicators. Additionally,the commonly used composite index RC,O was confirmed as an effective warning indicator. Strong correlations were found between the CO volume fraction,RC,O,O2 volume fraction,and the pressure difference (ΔH) between the inside and outside of the closed area. The correlation was highest with O2 volume fraction (0. 801 3 for CO and 0. 785 8 for RC,O), followed by ΔH (0. 696 8 for CO and 0. 672 1 for RC,O). Continuous monitoring showed that RC,O exceeded the minimum threshold for a blue warning on the second day and continued to rise, successfully triggering the model’ s blue warning alert. These findings demonstrate that the hierarchical early warning model is effective and can be reliably applied in practice.

     

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