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基于灰色关联分析法的煤矿顶板事故研究及防治

Research and prevention of coal mine roof accident based on grey correlation analysis

  • 摘要: 统计分析了2018—2022年顶板事故在全国煤矿事故中的占比、顶板事故的百万吨死亡率,以及不同事故等级、不同类型煤企、不同作业场所及作业时间的顶板事故发生情况,并对顶板事故的诱发因素进行分析。采用灰色关联分析法对顶板事故的诱发因素、发生的作业场所、发生的作业时间与顶板事故发生数量之间的关系进行分析,探究系统内部因素之间的强弱程度,揭示影响煤矿顶板事故发生的主要因素,并提出相应的防治对策。结果表明,2018—2022年,全国煤矿顶板事故得到了有效控制,但顶板事故在全国煤矿安全事故中占比仍然较大,呈多发趋势,特大事故也时有发生,民营企业煤矿顶板事故数量居高不下;采用灰色关联法分析得到违规作业是导致顶板事故发生的最主要因素,采掘工作面是顶板事故发生的最主要作业场所,20:00—22:00是顶板事故发生的最主要作业时间段。

     

    Abstract: The occurrence of roof accidents between 2018 and 2022 was analyzed statistically, including the proportion of roof accidents in coal mine accidents in China, the million-ton fatality rate of roof accidents, the occurrence of roof accidents at different accident levels, different types of coal enterprises, different workplaces and different working hours, and the induced factors of roof accidents were analyzed. Grey correlation analysis was used to analyse the relationship between the induced factors, workplaces, working hours and the number of roof accidents, to explore the strength of the internal factors of the system, to reveal the main factors affecting the occurrence of roof accidents in coal mines, and to put forward corresponding preventive and control countermeasures. The results show that the national coal mine roof accidents have been effectively controlled from 2018 to 2022, but the roof accidents still account for a large proportion of the coal mine safety accidents in the country, showing a tendency of multiple accidents, serious accidents also occur from time to time, and the number of coal mine roof accidents in private enterprises remains high. According to the analysis of the grey correlation method, the unauthorized operation is the most important factor leading to the occurrence of roof accident. The mining face is the most important workplace for the occurrence of roof accidents. The most concentrated working period for roof accidents is 20:00 to 22:00.

     

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