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安全事故致因因素动态约简算法的创建及其应用

Establishment and application of dynamic reduction algorithm for causative factors of safety accidents

  • 摘要: 针对目前因素分析法难以判定事故孕育动态过程中新增因素对事故演化影响的问题,基于因素空间理论和粗糙集理论,创建了安全事故致因因素的动态约简算法。在因素静态约简算法的基础上,通过定义因素对事故演化影响的重要度概念,提出因素重要度定义及算法,对事故致因因素重要度进行排序,给出了安全事故致因因素的动态约简算法。以煤与瓦斯突出事故为研究对象,给出突出事故致因因素动态约简算法的应用示例。研究表明:安全事故影响因素的重要度是衡量其对安全事故发生与否的重要量度,因素的重要度越大,其与安全事故之间的因果逻辑关系越强,在事故安全防控中越要重点关注;因素动态约简算法通过重要度排序和决定度分析,可有效利用原有约简结果,迅速得出新增加因素对事故孕育演化的影响能力,快速确定事故致因因素,实现整体约简。

     

    Abstract: In view of the problem that the current factor analysis method is difficult to determine the impact of new factors on the evolution of accidents during the dynamic process of accident incubating, a dynamic reduction algorithm for causative factors of safety accidents is developed based on the factor space and rough sets theories.Based on the factor static reduction algorithm, by defining the importance of factors on accident evolution, the definition and algorithm of factor importance were proposed and the dynamic reduction algorithm of the factors causing safety accidents is given by ranking the importance of accident-causing factors.Taking coal and gas outburst accident as the research object, an application example of dynamic reduction algorithm for outburst accident causal factor is given.The research shows that the importance of influencing factors of safety accidents is an important measure to whether safety accidents occurs or not.The greater the importance of factor, the stronger the causal logic relationship between it and safety accidents, and the more attention should be paid to in the accident safety prevention and control.The original reduction results can be effectively used by the factor dynamic reduction algorithm through the importance ranking and determination analysis, thus the influence of new factors to accidents evolution can be quickly obtained, and accident causing factors were determined quickly to achieve overall reduction.

     

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