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基于改进博弈论采空区煤自燃危险性可拓评价

Coal spontaneous combustion hazard extension evaluation in goaf based on improved game theory

  • 摘要: 为了克服诸多采空区煤自燃危险性评价模型和方法的不足,建立了基于改进博弈论赋权的可拓评价模型。依据可拓理论建立经典域、节域、待评价物元和计算指标的关联系数矩阵,运用改进G1法、熵权法、改进博弈论计算评价指标的综合权重,从而确定评价物元的综合关联度,引入置信度和等级赋值识别评价物元的危险等级和排序。采用可拓评价模型对采空区煤自燃危险性进行评价,通过选取16个影响煤自燃的评价指标,建立了采空区煤自燃危险性评价的物元体系,基于综合权重和关联系数矩阵,计算得到采空区煤自燃危险性的综合关联度,识别了4个采空区煤自燃危险等级和排序。分析结果表明,评价物元的危险等级和排序符合煤矿现场情况,能较好地用于指导现场防治煤自燃工作。

     

    Abstract: In order to overcome the shortcomings of coal spontaneous combustion hazard evaluation in goaf in previous evaluation models, an extension evaluation model was established based on improved game theory empowerment. Classical field, joint domain, matter-element to be evaluated were built and correlation coefficient matrix of indexes was calculated by extension theory. Comprehensive weight of evaluation indexes was calculated by using improved G1 method, entropy weight method and improved game theory, and the comprehensive correlative degree of evaluated matter-element was determined.Hazard rating and sequencing of evaluated matter-element were identified by introducing confidence and rating assignment. Coal spontaneous combustion hazard in goaf was evaluated by the model. 16 evaluation indexes affecting coal spontaneous combustion were selected.The matter-element system for evaluating coal spontaneous combustion hazard in goaf was established. Comprehensive correlative degree of coal spontaneous combustion hazard in goaf was calculated by comprehensive weight and correlation coefficient matrix. Hazard rating and sequencing of coal spontaneous combustion in four goafs were identified. Analysis results show that hazard rating and sequencing of evaluated matter-element are in line with the colliery field situation. Evaluation results can be used to guide the field fire prevention and extinguishing work.

     

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