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基于贝叶斯网络的HAZOP-LOPA煤矿安全风险评价方法应用研究

Application of HAZOP-LOPA coal mine safety risk assessment method based on Bayesian network

  • 摘要: 为了解决传统安全评价方法在煤矿安全风险评价中的局限性、适用性,以及分析过程易受人为主观因素影响等问题,提出基于贝叶斯网络(BN)的HAZOP-LOPA煤矿安全风险评价方法。通过研究危险与可操作性分析法(HAZOP)与防护层分析法(LOPA)这2种方法的优缺点,将定性分析与半定量分析相结合,在LOPA法中的各个防护层中插入贝叶斯网络模型,利用“GeNie”软件计算独立防护层的失效概率,构建贝叶斯模型,完成贝叶斯网络模型的分析和计算,并将此方法应用于煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故评价中,结果表明瓦斯传感器和优化通风系统2个独立防护层起到了降低风险的作用。

     

    Abstract: In order to solve the limitations and applicability of traditional safety assessment methods in coal mine safety risk assessment, and the analysis process was easily affected by subjective factors, the HAZOP-LOPA coal mine risk assessment method based on Bayesian network (BN) was proposed. By analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of hazard and operability analysis (HAZOP) and layers of protection analysis (LOPA), qualitative analysis and semi-quantitative analysis were combined. The BN model was inserted into each protective layer in LOPA, and the failure probability of the independent protective layer was calculated by using "GeNie" software. The Bayesian model was constructed to complete the analysis and calculation of the BN model. This method was applied to coal mine gas explosion accidents. The results show that the two independent protective layers of gas sensor and optimized ventilation system can reduce the risk.

     

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