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矿业安全生产事故时间序列的模糊区间预测

Fuzzy interval prediction of time series of mining safety production accidents

  • 摘要: 为解决矿业安全生产事故预测过程中的不确定性和随机性问题,提出了一种矿业安全生产事故时间序列的模糊区间预测模型。采用小波变换将矿业安全生产事故时间序列分解为一组高频信号序列和一组低频信号序列,采用样本熵重组子序列,并将其映射为包含Low、R、Up共3个参数的窗口化的时间序列;运用模糊C均值聚类(Fuzzy C-means clustering,FCM)算法对窗口化的时间序列进行预测,得到矿业安全生产事故时间序列的模糊区间预测结果,并用6组测试样本验证模型的预测精度。结果显示:R值和Up值测试样本序列的平均相对误差分别为17.737 1%、8.771 2%,表明矿业安全生产事故时间序列的模糊区间预测模型精确度较高且区间范围较为合理,可以为矿业安全决策提供理论依据。

     

    Abstract: In order to solve the uncertainty and randomness in the process of mining safety production accident prediction, a fuzzy interval prediction model of mining safety production accident time series was proposed. Wavelet transform was used to decompose the time series of mining safety production accidents into a set of high-frequency signal sequences and a set of low-frequency signal sequences, sample entropy was used to reconstruct the subsequence, and it was mapped to windowed time series with three parameters of Low, R and Up parameters; Fuzzy C-means clustering (FCM) algorithm was used to predict the windowed time series, the interval prediction results of the mining safety production accident time series were obtained, and 6 sets of test samples were used to verify the prediction accuracy of the model. The results show that the average relative errors of R value and Up value are 17.737 1% and 8.771 2% respectively, indicating that the fuzzy interval prediction model of mining safety production accident time series has high accuracy and reasonable interval range, which can provide theoretical basis for mining safety decision-making.

     

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