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基于改进AHP-GRA评价模型的煤与瓦斯突出危险性评价

Evaluation of coal and gas outburst risk based on improved AHP-GRA evaluation model

  • 摘要: 为了提高煤与瓦斯突出危险性评价的准确性,采用灰色关联分析计算各影响因素的关联序,选取瓦斯压力、瓦斯放散初速度、开采深度、煤的破坏类型和煤的坚固性系数作为评价指标,并提出了基于中性参考对象的层次分析法来实时评价煤与瓦斯突出的危险性。选取我国典型突出矿井的煤与瓦斯突出实测数据作为样本,建立评价指标模型,计算其权重值。根据预先设定的评价指标评分规则计算煤与瓦斯突出的总体安全评分值,与设定的中性参考分值进行比较得出评判结果。结果表明:利用改进的层次分析法对样本进行煤与瓦斯突出危险性评判的准确率为95.7%;当总评分值高于中性参考分值50分时,说明所评价煤层不具有煤与瓦斯突出危险,反之则会有发生煤与瓦斯突出的危险,且评分值越高煤与瓦斯突出危险性越小。

     

    Abstract: In order to improve the accuracy of risk assessment of coal and gas outburst, Gray Relational Analysis was used to calculate the correlation sequence of each influencing factor, and the gas pressure, initial velocity of gas release, mining depth, failure type and robustness coefficient of coal were selected as evaluation indexes, Analytic Hierarchy Process based on neutral reference object was proposed to evaluate the risk of coal and gas outburst in real time. The measured data of coal and gas outburst in typical mines in China were selected as samples, establishing an evaluation index model and calculating its weight value. The overall safety score of coal and gas outburst was calculated according to the pre-set evaluation index scoring rules, and the evaluation result was obtained by comparing with the set neutral reference score. The results show that the accuracy of risk assessment of coal and gas outburst is 95.7% by using improved Analytic Hierarchy Process; when the total score is higher than the neutral reference score of 50 points, it indicates that the evaluated coal seam has no coal and gas outburst risk, otherwise, it will occur, and the higher the score, the less the risk of coal and gas outburst.

     

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